Posts Tagged ‘Risk’

I Want A Bailout Too!

Tom Brokaw writes in the Wall Street Journal’s opinion pages :

Barney "Big Un" Baumgartner of Windblown, Wyo., invited the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department to take over his business, The Big Un 24 Hour Tow Service and Trophy Taxidermy.

In a handwritten press release, Mr. Baumgartner explained that with winter and hunting season coming on, the good citizens of Windblown would be without his vital services unless he found a way to deal with his escalating debts, fast.

"This is not just about me or my neighbors in Windblown. Heck, we get three or four tourists and out-of-state hunters here every 10 days or so. What if they need a tow or a trophy mount? The consequences are too great to contemplate," Mr. Baumgartner explained.

He’d be willing to let the government have 80% of his business for a quick cash infusion. He thought something in the neighborhood of $1.8 million should do the trick. That would be enough to gas up his two tow trucks, get some new taxidermy stuffing and clean up that overdue account at the Number 10 Saloon and Casino over in Deadwood, S.D.

Treasury Department officials had no comment on Mr. Baumgartner’s request, but a source familiar with the response to the bailout of American International Group said Treasury has been inundated with similar requests.

- A pawn shop in Reno, Nev., has an excess supply of eight-track cassette players, flower print shirts, broad white belts and Wayne Newton tapes, having gambled that the ’70s would come roaring back. The owner pleaded for a Treasury take-over, arguing, "How can the government stand by and let such a rich part of our American culture simply fade away?"

- The owner of an NFL poster shop in Green Bay, Wis., reports that he has given up on divine intervention and is now asking for Treasury to take over his business in a last-ditch effort to preserve the notion that whatever our differences, we’re all Americans.

Asked how his business got into trouble, Karl Andursen of Muledeer, Minn., said he met a man who specialized in printing Minnesota Viking and Chicago Bears posters. Mr. Andursen said the man was willing to bundle his posters and sell them at a discounted rate to anyone who would take over the Green Bay territory.

Mr. Andurson said in the back of his mind he knew that could be risky since Green Bay is sacred ground for Packer fans who wouldn’t cheer for the Vikes or the Bears if they were promised a fleet of new snowmobiles and lifetime hunting rights on Brett Favre’s farm.

But, as he said, everyone was in the NFL merchandise game and he figured he’d take the territory and after 30 days flip the franchise for a big profit. A year later and he’s not made a sale, not one, but who knew?

He’s offered his complete inventory of Go Bears! and Vikings Rock! posters for 20 cents on the dollar or $500,000 in 30-year Treasury bonds.

- Darlene Dalrymple owner of the Shear Joy Hairstyling and Tattoo Salon in Rockhard, Vt., wrote Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, inviting him and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to her shop for a free trim and tat if they’d also help with her balance sheet.

Ms. Dalrymple said she’s very busy, but her expenses somehow always exceed her income. She suspects her boyfriend, who likes to use a lot of Wall Street lingo he picks up watching business channels on TV, is shorting her cash register.

Ms. Dalrymple said her boyfriend also called her a moral hazard, and she’d like Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke to explain exactly what that means.

Risky Business

In a recent post from the Shotgun Blog, I question the government’s role in reducing/controlling risk:

“In his book, The Armchair Economist, Steven Landsburg describes a study on the results of seatbelt laws – another risk reducing mandate. What did he find? The more people wore their seatbelts the more car accidents occurred, resulting in an increase in deaths and injuries.

Why? Individuals increased the risk level of their driving to make up for the risk eliminated by wearing a belt. The number of car crashes increased as people drove more recklessly, but the crashes resulted in fewer deaths and injuries because of the belts. So it canceled out, right? Wrong. Guess who doesn’t benefit from a seatbelt in a crash? Pedestrians. Deaths and injuries from accidents involving pedestrians increased, bringing the total number of deaths and injuries up above what it was before the seatbelt law. An outcome lawmakers didn’t predict.

You might find this hard to believe – would people actually drive more recklessly to make up for the risk that was reduced when they buckled up? Humans make detailed risk calculations like this every day. Each of us has a level of risk we are willing to tolerate in each circumstance, no more and no less. You are willing to increase your chance of death by getting in a car just to pick up a candy bar at the gas station. You may even do so if the road is wet. But if it’s icy, it may no longer be a risk you are willing to take. If roads are dry, however, you may increase your risk by driving faster – if doing 55 on a wet road was okay, on a dry road it may fall below your risk threshold.

Landsburg also discussed studies where individuals were given scalding hot coffee in a paper cup. They dropped it immediately so as not to get burned. But given coffee in a ceramic mug they took the burn while they set it down gently. The brain calculated what a burned hand was worth instantly – more than a paper cup, but less than a ceramic mug. We can calculate risk at amazing levels of speed and detail and we make decisions that keep us within our preferred level in each situation.

Human behavior cannot be willed-away at the whim of the legislature. If you pass this law those drivers who would’ve talked on their cell-phones will engage in some other risky behavior to compensate for it and return to their preferred level of risk.

That is the result of human choice and freedom. Risk is what makes decision-making possible. Risk also brings reward. Risk is an integral part of a free-society; it makes life worth living. A world without risk would be little more than a sterile experiment in a padded cell.”